Pascal's Wager Read online

  Pascal’s Wager

  The Man Who Played Dice with God

  James A. Connor

  Contents

  Time Lines

  Introduction: The Man Who Played Dice with God

  1625: The Witch

  1626–1631: A Dangerous World

  1631–1635: A Thinking Reed

  1635: Blaise Among the Geometers

  1585–1642: Un Bâtard Magnifique

  1631–1638: Madame Sainctot’s Salon

  The 1640s: Le Libertin Érudit

  1638: Charming the Cardinal

  1639–1640: Conic Sections

  1642: The Arithmetic Machine

  1638: The Jansenists

  1614–1646: The Void

  1646: Étienne Breaks His Hip

  January and February 1647: The Showman

  1647–1652: Jacqueline’s Vocation

  September 19, 1648: The Great Experiment

  1647: A Skirmish with the Devil

  1608: Port-Royal and the Clan Arnauld

  1643: The Great Arnauld

  1643, 1648–1653: The Fronde of the Parlement

  1648–1654: Adrift in the World

  1652: The Feud

  1653–1654: The Gambler’s Ruin

  1654: Letters to Fermat

  1654: The Night of Fire

  1656: So Jolly a Penitent

  1655–1661: The Jesuit Menace

  1656–1657: The Jesuit Menace, Part 2

  1656: The Miracle of the Holy Thorn

  1658–1662: Pascal’s Wager

  1660–1662: Port-Royal Agonistes

  1658–1662: May God Never Abandon Me

  Epilogue: Oracles, Dicing, and Schrödinger’s Cat

  Notes

  Further Reading

  About the Author

  Copyright

  About the Publisher

  TIME LINES

  1588

  PASCAL

  Birth of Étienne Pascal, father of Blaise Pascal, in Clermont, in the Auvergne region.

  FRANCE

  May 12: Day of Barricades in Paris. Duc de Guise seizes the city.

  July: Henry III capitulates to the duc de Guise.

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  Spanish Armada nearly succeeds.

  1605

  PASCAL

  FRANCE

  Huguenot refugees resettle in Netherlands, Ireland.

  Don Quixote is published.

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  James River colony founded in Virginia.

  Czar Boris Godunov dies.

  Paul V becomes pope.

  1616

  PASCAL

  (?) Étienne Pascal marries Antoinette Begon.

  FRANCE

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  Pocahontas arrives in England.

  Copernicus’s De revolutionibus is placed on the Index of Forbidden Books.

  1617

  PASCAL

  Birth of Anthonia Pascal, who dies days after her baptism.

  FRANCE

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  Saint Rose of Lima dies in Peru.

  Pocahontas dies.

  1619

  PASCAL

  Étienne Pascal buys Langhac mansion, near the abbey in Clermont.

  FRANCE

  Cyrano de Bergerac is born. Jean-Baptiste Colbert is born.

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  Jamestown, Virginia, creates the first representative assembly in the Americas.

  Slaves first brought to the colonies.

  1620

  PASCAL

  Birth of Gilberte Pascal, who marries her cousin Florin Perier.

  FRANCE

  Jean Picard, French astronomer, is born.

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  Plymouth colonists set out from England.

  Witchcraft trials begin in Scotland.

  Francis Bacon publishes the Novum organum.

  Bonesetting becomes a science.

  Thirty Years’ War begins in Prague.

  1623

  PASCAL

  June 19: Blaise Pascal born in Clermont, the son of Étienne Pascal, a minor noble and government official, and Antoinette Pascal, née Begon.

  FRANCE

  Erotomania first mentioned as a mental illness. Phillipe de Mornay dies.

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  August 6: Urban VIII Barberini elected pope. Would order the trial of Galileo.

  Wilhelm Schickard invents the calculating clock, a first attempt at a computer.

  1624

  PASCAL

  FRANCE

  Cardinal Richelieu becomes first minister of France.

  Jean-Louis Guez de Balzac publishes his Lettres.

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  George Fox, founder of the Quakers, is born in England.

  War between England and Spain.

  Mail service begins in Denmark.

  Saint Rosalio makes a miraculous appearance at a plague in Sicily.

  1624–1634

  PASCAL

  FRANCE

  Richelieu builds the Palais-Royal in Versailles.

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  Cornelius Drebbel discovers gases.

  1625

  PASCAL

  Birth of Jacqueline Pascal.

  FRANCE

  Henrietta Maria, princess of France and Navarre, marries Charles I of England.

  Thomas Corneille is born.

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  James I of England dies.

  1626

  PASCAL

  Antoinette Pascal dies.

  FRANCE

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  Saint Peter’s Basilica is consecrated.

  Charles I dissolves Parliament.

  The Dutch settle Manhattan.

  1627

  PASCAL

  FRANCE

  Richelieu sets out to establish the supremacy of the crown.

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  The aurochs are hunted to extinction, with the last one killed in Poland.

  1628

  1628

  PASCAL

  FRANCE

  Richelieu defeats the rebellious Huguenots.

  Richelieu founds the Académie Française.

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  1630

  PASCAL

  FRANCE

  Day of Dupes.

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  1631

  PASCAL

  Étienne moves to Paris and directs his children’s education based on the pedagogy of Montaigne. Blaise proves to be exceptional at mathematics.

  FRANCE

  The bell “Emmanuelle” in Notre Dame Cathedral is recast.

  René Le Bossu, French critic, born.

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  Imperial troops massacre about twenty thousand people in the city of Magdeburg.

  1633

  PASCAL

  FRANCE

  Saint-Cyran appointed father confessor to the nuns at Port-Royal de Paris by Mother Superior Angélique Arnauld.

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  Trial of Galileo in Rome.

  Samuel de Champlain, at the behest of Cardinal Richelieu, reclaims his role as commander of New France.

  1635

  PASCAL

  Young Blaise revealed as a mathematical prodigy.

  FRANCE

  The Académie Française of Paris expands to become a national art society.

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  1636

  PASCAL

  FRANCE

  First performance of Pierre Corneille’s play Le Cid.

  Jacques Marquette, French Jesuit and explorer, born.

  EUROPE AND THE N
EW WORLD

  Harvard College founded in the English colony of Massachusetts.

  The first ancestors of John Adams migrate to America.

  Roger Williams founds Rhode Island.

  1637

  PASCAL

  FRANCE

  René Descartes publishes the Discourse on Method.

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  1638

  PASCAL

  Étienne goes into hiding after opposing a fiscal measure of Richelieu’s, but leaves the children in Paris.

  FRANCE

  Louis XIV is born.

  Richelieu has Duvergier de Hauranne, the abbé de Saint-Cyran, imprisoned at Vincennes for the disruption of the peace of the church. The solitaries at Port-Royal move out to the old monastery at Port-Royal des Champs. The nuns remain in Paris.

  Cornelis Jansen dies.

  The French admiral d’Estrées runs his entire fleet aground in Curaçao.

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  Dutch settle in Ceylon.

  Maria Theresa of Spain, future wife of Louis XIV, born in Madrid.

  1639

  PASCAL

  Blaise’s sister Jacqueline appears in a play before Richelieu, after which he not only pardons Étienne but appoints him tax collector at Rouen.

  FRANCE

  Jean Racine, French dramatist and Jansenist, born.

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  Connecticut’s first constitution, “The Fundamental Orders,” is adopted.

  First printing house in the United States is founded in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

  Montreal settled.

  1640

  PASCAL

  Pascal family moves to Rouen. Blaise publishes his short work Essay on Conic Sections. Essay later discussed by Leibniz.

  FRANCE

  Posthumous publication of Jansen’s Augustinus.

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  First book, the Bay Psalm book, printed in America.

  1641

  PASCAL

  Gilberte Pascal marries Florin Perier.

  FRANCE

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  1642

  PASCAL

  Birth of Étienne Perier, who will later confirm the genuineness of Pascal’s Memorial. Blaise begins to work on his calculating machine, the Pascaline, to assist his father in computing taxes.

  FRANCE

  Cardinal Richelieu dies.

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  1642 to 1651: English Civil War between Cavaliers and Roundheads.

  The Puritans close all theaters in England.

  Galileo Galilei dies.

  1643

  PASCAL

  Blaise continues work on the Pascaline.

  FRANCE

  Louis XIII dies. Anne of Austria becomes regent.

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  Antoine Arnauld publishes De la fréquente communion.

  1644

  PASCAL

  FRANCE

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  Torricelli conducts his experiments on the vacuum.

  1645

  PASCAL

  Letter to the Chancellor, dedicating the calculating machine.

  FRANCE

  Louis Joliet, French explorer of Canada, born.

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  English Civil War.

  1646

  PASCAL

  Étienne Pascal and his friend Pierre Petit re-create Torricelli’s experiment on the vacuum. Blaise takes over the experiments.

  Étienne is injured and is cared for by two Jansenists who convert the family to this strict form of Christianity.

  April 5: Birth of Margaret Perier.

  Blaise Pascal begins work on the vacuum.

  FRANCE

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  The Westminster Confession of Faith.

  Wars of the Three Kingdoms.

  1647

  PASCAL

  Pascal returns to Paris for his health. Jacqueline attends to him. Visits by Descartes on September 23 and 24. Discussion on atmospheric pressure and the function of the barometer.

  Controversy with Père Noël the Jesuit plenist and teacher of Descartes over the authority of Aristotle.

  Birth of Marie Perier.

  FRANCE

  Pierre Bayle, French philosopher, born.

  Denis Papin, French inventor, born.

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  Death of Torricelli.

  1648

  PASCAL

  Conversations between Blaise Pascal and Monsieur de Rebours at Port-Royal. Much misunderstanding. Pascal returns to Clermont. Writes treatise on conic sections.

  FRANCE

  Sept. 1: Père Mersenne dies.

  Sept. 19: Florin Perier, following Blaise Pascal’s detailed instructions, performs the great experiment on the Puy-de-Dôme. Blaise repeats experiments at the bottom and the top of the St. James tower in Paris, as well as in a tower at Notre Dame. Pascal considers the existence of the vacuum to be proved.

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  Peace of Westphalia; end of Thirty Years’ War in Germany.

  1648–1653

  PASCAL

  FRANCE

  The Fronde of the Parlement. Revolt by the Parlement and nobles against the regency.

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  1648

  PASCAL

  FRANCE

  May: Chamber of St. Louis in Paris draws up demands for reform.

  August: Arrest of Broussel; Parisians rise up against Séguier and the queen.

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  1649

  PASCAL

  Pascal family returns to Clermont to avoid the Fronde.

  FRANCE

  January: Revolt of the Parlement of Aix. The frondeurs and the French government sign the Peace of Rueil. Jansen’s Augustinus denounced at the Sorbonne.

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  January 30: Charles I of England is beheaded.

  September 2: The Italian city of Castro is destroyed by the forces of Innocent X.

  1650

  PASCAL

  FRANCE

  René Descartes dies in Sweden.

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  Christopher Scheiner, great Jesuit antagonist of Galileo Galilei, dies.

  1651–1653

  PASCAL

  FRANCE

  Rise of the Ormée movement in Bordeaux.

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  1651

  PASCAL

  September 24: Death of Étienne Pascal.

  September 27: Birth of Louis Perier.

  The duc de Roannez appointed governor and lieutenant general of Poitou.

  FRANCE

  Jean-Baptiste de La Salle born.

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  Thomas Hobbes writes Leviathan.

  Massachusetts passes laws forbidding poor people from adopting excessive styles of dress.

  Maximilian I, elector of Bavaria, dies.

  1652

  PASCAL

  Jacqueline enters the convent at Port-Royal de Paris.

  Pascal begins his “worldly” period.

  Letter from Pascal to Queen Christina of Sweden.

  FRANCE

  Michel Rolle, French mathematician, is born.

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  Cape Town, South Africa, founded.

  Rhode Island passes the first law in the Americas against slavery.

  John Cotton, founder of Boston, dies.

  1653

  PASCAL

  Pascal takes journey to Poitou, accompanied by Méré, Mitton, and the duc de Roannez. Pascal writes on the geometrical and intuitive minds.

  FRANCE

  Jews allowed to return to France and England.

  The Fronde ends.

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  February 2: New Amsterdam, later renamed New York City, is incorporated.

  Coffeehouses become popular
across Europe.

  1653

  PASCAL

  June 3: Five propositions of Jansen found in the Augustinus condemned by Pope Innocent X.

  June 5: Jacqueline Pascal takes vows at Port-Royal, taking the religious name of Sœur Jacqueline de Sainte-Euphémie.

  FRANCE

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  1654

  PASCAL

  November 23: a two-hour ecstatic vision leads to Blaise’s conversion. The account of this vision is kept in the lining of his coat at all times.

  FRANCE

  June 3: Louis XIV crowned at Rheims.

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  The Republican Party questions Cromwell’s power. Cromwell expels his enemies from Parliament.

  December 27: Jacob Bernoulli born in Switzerland.

  1655

  PASCAL

  January 7: Pascal takes a retreat to Port-Royal, where he defends Arnauld against the Jesuits who sought to expel him.

  FRANCE

  Arnauld publishes his attack on Jesuit casuistry in his Lettres à un duc et pair. Motion to expel him from the Sorbonne.

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  Battle of the Severn. Protestant militia defeats Catholic militia for control of Maryland.

  1656

  PASCAL

  Appearance of the first of the Provincial Letters.

  FRANCE

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  The pendulum clock invented by Christian Huygens.

  1658

  PASCAL

  Pascal lectures on his apologetics to the leaders of Port-Royal.

  FRANCE

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  September 3: Oliver Cromwell dies.

  1659

  PASCAL

  Pascal comes down with the illness that will lead to his death. Works in brief periods of relief from suffering.

  FRANCE

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  1661

  PASCAL

  Jacqueline dies. Port-Royal closed after official condemnation of Jansenism.

  FRANCE

  Death of Cardinal Mazarin. Priests are required to sign a formulary against Jansenism.

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  1662

  PASCAL

  August 17: Blaise Pascal dies in the house of one of his sisters.

  FRANCE

  EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD

  1670

  PASCAL

  Publication of the Pensées, which Pascal had worked on sporadically the last four years of his life.